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NFLs Best Young Receivers Part 4 Breakin
- lovelystyle
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1 year 8 months ago #331
by lovelystyle
NFLs Best Young Receivers Part 4 Breakin was created by lovelystyle
The NFL is a pa sing league. You know this. I know this. Everyone in and around the league knows this. And
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because it's a pa sing league, the wide receiver position has never been more important than it is right now. Perhaps it's no coincidence, then, that there are seemingly more young, good wide receivers populating the league than at any time in recent memory.With that in mind, we've been using this space over the past few weeks to highlight some of the league's up-and-coming wideouts. Because I'm a little obse sive about this kind of stuff, we're breaking the players down into distinct categories that capture their on-field roles: Speed Demons and Deep Threats ( ), Slot Mavens and Offensive Weapons ( ), Po se sion Receivers ( ), and after finally recovering some data from my old laptop, the Technicians and All-Around Monsters (below).A couple of quick notes before we dive into the first category of players:The only receivers we're looking at here at players who are . That means no , no , no , no , no , etc. We already did our in-depth look at those guys . While there is one player who made our top-10 list (and two who were honorable mentions) that will be featured during this series, for the most part, we are just looking at the youngsters, which means focusing on players whose future is likely brighter than their present.We're not exclusively looking at the receivers, but instead all of the receivers still on their rookie deals who fit a certain mold, and have already proven to be at least nominal contributors to their offenses. Basically, anyone who has at least 15 targets this season qualifies.Without further ado, let's dig into the technicians and monster receivers (with 2020 statistics, via Pro Football Focus and Tru Media)...PlayerAgeYrsRecTgtYdsTDYds/RteTgt %A.J. Brown2326091924102.4524.1%221579277281.8822.4% 232801161282102.1719.7%25382125132292.5524.1%D.J. Moore23361103109242.1920.7%2114710371621.5121.7%21179109126772.6022.4% 25280120107831.9121.3%In case it wasn't made obvious by the fact that we saved this group for last, this is (for the most part) the best group of young wide receivers. Just about all of them have shown star-caliber, No. 1 receiver upside at some point this season or last, and most of them have been stars throughout this year. You can see just how much better they've been than the other groups, pretty much acro s the board. TypeTgt %Rte Depth1st %Expl %YAC/RecYds/RteDeep/Burner16.1%9.2039.2%19.5%4.301.36Slot/Weapon20.5%6.8441.1%16.6%5.121.63Po se sion20.4%8.4142.8%17.9%4.391.74Tech/Monster21.9%9.0245.5%22.9%5.
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062.16The technicians and monsters have drawn the highest target rate, being thrown the ball on 21.9 percent of their routes run. They've run routes nearly as deep as the deep/burner types, but they've been much more efficient with their targets, creating first downs (45.5 percent to 39.2 percent) and explosive plays (22.9 percent to 19.5 percent) far more often as a percentage of their targets. They've also created nearly as many yards after the catch (5.06 per reception) as the slot mavens and offensive weapons, whose targets tend to come closer to the line of scrimmage and thus designed to pick up YAC. In the aggregate, this group of players has managed to be far motion efficient on a per-route basis than any other, generating 2.16 yards per route run.We'll start with the exception to the rule, Jerry Jeudy of the . He has not had the best rookie season, especially when compared to other top receiver prospects like and Justin Jefferson. Jeudy's catch rate is almost impo sibly low, and it's not helped by the fact that he has dropped 11.7 percent of the pa ses thrown his way. Still, there are signs of a quality
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player lurking underneath the drops. He's averaging better than 15 yards per reception. He's created an explosive play on more than 20 percent of his targets. He's being trusted to run fairly deep routes, with an average break 8.67 yards downfield. And he is a fantastic route-runner. He has been faking guys out of their shoes all season. (That's why he's part of the "technicians" group.) He just, ya know, needs to hang onto the damn ball.The other players in the technician group have been significantly more effective than Jeudy. Even Terry McLaurin, who has been saddled with some of the worst quarterback play in the league both this season and last, is averaging 1.91 yards per route run, spurred by his 5.8 yards after catch per reception average. He's created explosive plays on greater than 20 percent of his targets, and he has a microscopic 2.5 percent drop rate. If the ever gets him on above-average signal-caller, he is going to absolutely explode. D.J. Moore has been operating as the 1A option in a very crowded pa s-catching group, splitting targets with both and , not to mention (when healthy) and . Still, he's drawn a target on 20.7
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percent of his routes and, fueled by his 6.1 yards after catch per reception average, is at 17.5 yards per catch. He's been targeted further downfield this year than last, when he was in more of a po se sion role, and that's helped him create explosive players more often -- on 25.3 percent of his targets this year. He's 23 years old, in just his third season, and is able to move freely between the perimeter and the slot, and also to contribute in the run game on occasion. (Though the have shifted that role almost entirely to Samuel.)Each of Ridley and Jefferson, meanwhile, should be in the mix for an All-Pro spot. has one of the First Team nods sewn up, but they should get heavy consideration for one of the other three wideout spots available. They've created first downs on 47.3 (Ridley) and 46.0 percent (Jefferson) of their targets, respectively, two of the highest rates in the league. Ridley has just been an absolute explosive-play monster, with 36 receptions of 16 yards or more, the top mark in the league. Jefferson has 30 of those, by the way, good for fourth behind only Ridley, , and . Both players have also been tasked with running incredibly deep routes, and have remained efficient despite being targeted on pa ses with a lower chance of being completed. Ridley's average rate has broke 10.57 yards downfield, while Jefferson's has broken 9.72 yards downfield. Among the 121 players with 50 targets or more, those figures rank fifth (Ridley) and 14th (Jefferson).Claypool has been targeted ridiculously often, getting thrown a pa s on more than 22 percent of his routes. He is an athletic marvel with otherworldly size, and he has shown the ability to win at or behind the line of scrimmage as well as down the field on deep pa ses. The almost never throw those, though, so he has been trusted to do a lot of his work after the catch. His 5.5 YAC per reception average shows he's up to the task, helping make up for the fact that his average route has broken only 7.51 yards downfield -- far closer to the line of scrimmage than the other
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players in this group.
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